Just how big is the threat?
There's a common theme in Hollywood movies, where the heroes battle with some monster and vanquish it. The action pauses, and they catch their breaths after putting out their utmost, an utmost that was barely enough.
The most thoughtful member of the band looks up, clears his or her throat a bit deferentially, and says "You know, it's weird, but my new measurements and calculations show that the enemy will recover and is still growing." The rest of the tired troupe blink and the youngest whispers with shaking breath "You mean it is going to get bigger?" The thoughtful one pauses, thinks carefully, and says "much, much bigger."
Not a movie script?
Real life does not usually resemble a Hollywood movie, but with global warming we might just be following the above script. Why? Partly because scientists, while thoughtful, are notoriously slow and cautious, and partly because climate scientists never want to appear alarmist. As a rule, a scientific prediction either nails it, or understates.
Lately there has grown up a curious practice of climate-science skepticism. If a predicted climate change is "probably X" and only half X happens, the skeptics say "See! X didn't happen; ergo there is no climate change". Other times, X (for example: record droughts) happen, but are dismissed because Y (for example: snow in Boston) also happened.
Yet climate scientists base their temperature estimates on very solid laws of nature, and the only real wiggle-room those laws give is in timing and location. So, contrary to the skeptics' view, seeing just half X is not a good sign; global warming may just have been holding back or hiding a bit.
In light of new measurements and calculations
New climate information is coming in all the time. We now know, courtesy of 3,847 new Argos ocean probes, first that a huge amount of "greenhouse effect" heat is being loaded into the deep sea, and second, that a mere 4% of the newly trapped heat went into warming the land from 2005 through 2010. See the chart to the right.
This is fascinating yet sobering: the record high global temperatures seen in the last decade were caused by less than one twentieth of the incoming extra energy. Climate energy flows are rather large.
Note that these are flows. Flows are subject to variation and change. When they are changing they will not always be steady and do not have to balance ... for a while.
Energy does not disappear, but it can hide
Despite Anthony Watts' proclamations in the WattsUpWithThat blog, energy is relentless conserved, even if it's not for the moment on our doorsteps.
For years climate researchers very strongly suspected that the extra trapped heat was going into the ocean, but until the Argos probes were deployed, they could not prove it.
However, there is no guarantee that Earth's new heat won't decide to go somewhere else. Or that new sources of heat won't appear.
In Hollywood movie terms: if the monster gave up early, you can rest assured sure he/she will be back ... with his mom.
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